Doctor Iain Pardoe, University of Oregon Professor of Decision Sciences, used statistics to correctly predict all the major Oscar winners.
Using statistics dating back to 1936, he has determined that certain factors make getting an Academy Award more likely.
In 2009 and 2010, in the major categories (best picture, director, actor and actress), he was four for four.
This year, he has The Artist with an 89 per cent chance or winning Best Picture. Michel Hazanavicius, director, for The Artist: 85%. Jean Dujardin in The Artist for Best Actor in a Leading Role: 64%. Viola Davis in The Help for Best Actress in a Leading Role: 71%.
I suppose 3 out of 4 is not bad. 24 out of 28 over 7 years. This year, Meryl Streep snatched Best Actress, despite only being given an 8% chance of winning by Doctor Pardoe.